Country Insights

Why Is the EB-2 India Backlog So Long? The Math Behind the Wait

A deep dive into the 7% country cap, the demand-supply mismatch, and why the line moves so slowly for Indian nationals.

VB
Visa Bulletin Team

The EB-2 India backlog is not just a "long line"—it is a structural mathematical bottleneck that has created a wait time spanning decades for new applicants.

The Root Cause: 7% Cap

  • Total Annual Visas: ~140,000
  • Per-Country Limit: 7% (approx. 9,800 total)
  • India Demand: 100,000+ new applicants per year
  • Result: A massive bottleneck where demand vastly exceeds supply.

The Demand Mismatch

India is the primary source of high-skilled IT, engineering, and medical talent for the U.S. economy. Thousands of Indian nationals enter the U.S. on H-1B visas every year and eventually apply for Green Cards.

1

High Inflow

Tens of thousands of newly approved I-140 petitions enter the queue every year.

2

Fixed Supply

The "quota" for India remains fixed at 7% unless there are unused visas from other countries.

3

The Backlog Grows

Since inflow > outflow, the line gets longer every single year. The Priority Date moves slower than real time.

The "Spillover" Lifeline

The only reason the queue moves at all is Horizontal Spillover. If the Rest of the World (ROW) does not use all their allocated visas, the leftovers "spill over" to the backlogged countries (India and China).

No More COVID Bonus
During the COVID-19 pandemic, unused family visas created a temporary flood of spillover. That surplus is now gone, and we have returned to regular scarcity levels.

Legislative Outlook

Various bills (like the EAGLE Act or S.386) have proposed eliminating the per-country cap. While these have passed in the House or Senate at different times, none have been signed into law. Until legislation changes, the structural imbalance remains.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration laws are complex and subject to change. Always consult with a qualified immigration attorney for your specific case.